Bob Metcalfe's Short And Elegant Explanation

This appeared in Bob Metcalfe's column in InfoWorld:

Why? If, with a probability of 1/3, you first chose the car, then switching loses. But if, with a probability of 2/3, you first chose a goat, then switching wins. So, switching wins with a probability of 2/3.
Not only does this explain it perfectly, it's a fine example of a concise explanation. Think about it.

You may want to read the whole article (dead link!) in IDG's website.

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